Saturday, 14 December 2013

如何以大众 2009 年年报,评估大众银行3年后的盈利和股价 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

发表于 6/5/2010 11:22


首先是 PBBANK vs. MALAYSIA...看了之后应该不需要解释为何我选大众不选其它银行了。

再看看 PBBANK vs. ASIA...你就可以看得出整个亚洲的 TOP 银行大概也只有香港的恒生银行可以和大众一比高低。

之后是用 PBBANK 2012 的 3 years medium term target 来评估大众银行在 2012 年的股价。


这里我都把重点放在 total asset.

2012 target total asset is RM320 billion vs. RM217.1 billion in 2009. From PBBANK vs. Malaysia document, we can see that pre-tax return on average assets for PBBANK is 1.6%, and in fact the average number for this for the last 10 years is even higher than 1.6%. Ok, juz give it a conservative estimation, that 2012 pre-tax return on average assets is also 1.6%.

Then, usually net-profit is ~ 75% of the pre-tax profit, meaning net profit would be about 1.2%-1.3% of total assets.

1.25% X RM320billion ~ RM4 billlion of Net Profit.

If RM4 billion of net profit / 3.5 billion shares of PBBANK issued, EPS in 2012 would be ~ 114.3 sen

If we give it a conservative PE ratio of 13, share price = 13 X 114.3 sen = RM14.86
If we give it a normal PE ratio of 15, share price = 15 X 114.3 = RM17.15

Even for those who bought at current price of ~RM12.00, total return = RM17.15/RM12 = 42.88%, or 12.63% p.a.

Yet, this return is only based on share price, while the dividend payout for 2010-2012 have not been included.

I do believe that PBBANK is able to achieve BASEL III requirement while paying dividend of 55sen a year for 2010-2012.

So total estimated dividend = RM1.65

RM17.15 + RM1.65 = RM 18.8, RM18.8/RM12 = 56.67%, or 16.14% p.a

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