Saturday, 14 December 2013

如何以大众 2009 年年报,评估大众银行3年后的盈利和股价 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者:夜孩子
发表于 6/5/2010 11:22

分享一个可以从大众银行2009年报133-135页里可以做的分析:

首先是 PBBANK vs. MALAYSIA...看了之后应该不需要解释为何我选大众不选其它银行了。

再看看 PBBANK vs. ASIA...你就可以看得出整个亚洲的 TOP 银行大概也只有香港的恒生银行可以和大众一比高低。

之后是用 PBBANK 2012 的 3 years medium term target 来评估大众银行在 2012 年的股价。

这个评估是纯碎因为大众银行在历年来都常常达标,有时还超出目标,所以相信大众银行这次也能做到。况且我个人认为大众银行是不会随便设定一些无法达成的目标。所以以下的分析,是分析大众银行若达标,2012年的股价会是多少。

这里我都把重点放在 total asset.

2012 target total asset is RM320 billion vs. RM217.1 billion in 2009. From PBBANK vs. Malaysia document, we can see that pre-tax return on average assets for PBBANK is 1.6%, and in fact the average number for this for the last 10 years is even higher than 1.6%. Ok, juz give it a conservative estimation, that 2012 pre-tax return on average assets is also 1.6%.

Then, usually net-profit is ~ 75% of the pre-tax profit, meaning net profit would be about 1.2%-1.3% of total assets.

1.25% X RM320billion ~ RM4 billlion of Net Profit.

If RM4 billion of net profit / 3.5 billion shares of PBBANK issued, EPS in 2012 would be ~ 114.3 sen

If we give it a conservative PE ratio of 13, share price = 13 X 114.3 sen = RM14.86
If we give it a normal PE ratio of 15, share price = 15 X 114.3 = RM17.15

Even for those who bought at current price of ~RM12.00, total return = RM17.15/RM12 = 42.88%, or 12.63% p.a.

Yet, this return is only based on share price, while the dividend payout for 2010-2012 have not been included.

I do believe that PBBANK is able to achieve BASEL III requirement while paying dividend of 55sen a year for 2010-2012.

So total estimated dividend = RM1.65

RM17.15 + RM1.65 = RM 18.8, RM18.8/RM12 = 56.67%, or 16.14% p.a







1 comment:

Blogger said...

eToro is the ultimate forex broker for newbie and advanced traders.