Sunday, 29 December 2013

照顾妈妈中风的日子 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者:夜孩子
日期:20/5/2010

相比很多人,我还能有照顾妈妈的机会,也算是一种福气。委不委屈,是看我们怎么看待。妈妈在 22th Nov 2009 中风,我还记得那时我还在吉隆坡探望女友,原本计划女友拿了年尾假期,陪她一星期。谁知道第三天,我才刚从戏院看完 "2012" 出来,就接到一个比 2012更恐怖的消息,就是妈妈中风入院。结果,就马上换顺了回怡保的车票。

中风入院一星期,几乎每天都跟爸爸轮流 24 小时守在妈妈身边。但由于爸爸身体虚弱,受不了冷气,所以每一个晚上都是我陪着妈妈到天亮。每天除了帮妈妈洗刷,帮忙叫护士医生,帮妈妈把一些下载一些温 柔的歌与音乐进我的手机,每次探望她时都开音乐或手机radio给她听,好让她的住院的日子过得好一些。医药报告出来的细节,由于我是读 Biochem 的,所以脑部,人体健康,新陈代谢,药物的副作用,我都会一一问医生问得清清楚楚。医生所教妈妈的复健及物理治疗,我都得一一记下来,然后陪着妈妈复习, 动作或姿态不对时,加以纠正。然后有些运动则是我个人对运动及人体的常识。妈妈即使中风,但心理上很坚强,心理还是个普通人,每天依然要我帮她吹头发,擦 润肤霜,打扮打扮,等。妈妈在医院里还算是最难服侍的病人了。

就这样,过了一星期。妈妈出院,回家休养了。可是,出院之后的日子,反而是我照顾妈妈最辛苦的期间。因为少了护士及医院的设备,许多的不便都很头痛。还记 得第一天回到家时,妈妈根本上不了楼梯,却又坚持要回自己的房间睡,我惟有一口气把 50kg 重的妈妈抱上二楼。之后没多久,舅舅有下来教了我简单的气功和推拿,尤其是推拿及按摩,天天至少都得做两次,每次每样都花半小时,加上复健和物理治疗,总 共花两小时以上。早晚都花两小时,加上妈妈不适合吃外面的食物,连多年来不会煮的我,也要学煮粥做菜,做早餐,有时还得煮一些适合中风病人喝的汤。爸爸除 了出外做工,天天都得为妈妈忙医院及保险的手续。当时已搬入新家,但旧家还有很多手尾,都是我和爸爸做。用餐之后,就帮妈妈花两三小时做推拿,按摩,复 健,洗刷,妈妈休息了,我就把厨房用具洗干净。不到一会儿,又到为下一餐准备了,吃了又再服侍妈妈,然后又收拾手尾,然后又再为下一餐准备。日子就酱天天 过,根本跑不开半步。惟有妈妈晚上睡了之后,才来看股市及学理财投资。三个月过去了,我只能通过msn及电话与女友保持联系,没有机会见她,还真是非常的 想念她。

由于跑不开,所以根本就不可能去工作,要找外快,就只有股票了。妈妈之前根本不能接受我投资股票,原因她本身已经厌倦了亏钱,所以起初我投资股票时,她还 蛮反对的。惟有中风了之后,在她休养的期间,人不再忙碌,不再压力,心平气和,才有机会偶尔跟她分享有关冷眼所讲的耶稣。直到二月左右,妈妈大概已经能接 受冷眼的那一套了,决定把资金交给我打理。也就是在二月乘小调整时,帮她买了大众银行。为了避免妈妈因股价波动而再次中风,我还跟妈妈说,就当作是她用 RM11买了一架每年都会印钞票的机器,我们要的是机器印出来的钞票,不是靠买卖机器来赚钱,所以机器值多少钱,是次要。从此,妈妈再也没有理会股市了, 因为她自己也醒觉,发现其实当年她买的大众银行,长期持有才是最赚钱的,而且不会使到精神崩溃。

日子就酱一天一天过,看着妈妈一天比一天进步。虽然酱的日子很辛苦,但我还真没想到,我三年在外读书,根本没有陪到妈妈,现在竟然在酱的情况下陪着妈妈, 为妈妈尽回一些多年来所缺少的孝道,也并不算太坏。直到我在三月时正式收到大学的信时,我曾经犹豫过要不要去念书。由于妈妈已近渐渐康复,可以自己慢慢走 路,扶着围栏慢慢上楼梯,可以自己吃饭,洗刷,她也不想我为了照顾她而放弃学业,特别是运动科学,更是我的梦想。所以之后才决定回槟城,在外家休养,有婆 婆,佣人,舅舅等亲戚照顾,好让爸爸可以安心出门工作,好让我可以出外念书。惟有每一个月,爸爸才上槟城一次,把妈妈带回怡保去医院复诊。

最后一次见妈妈时,已经是一个月前了。那时还真是被她吓坏,我回到家第一件事情是竟然看到她爬了两级的楼梯,挂窗帘。还能用针线慢慢缝布。她说是医生鼓励 她做的。医生说要骗自己的身体去做,让它快点好起来。当晚我到家时由于已经迟了,她便煮了一碗 Nestle 的 Maggi 面给我,虽然跟平时的 Maggi 面没什么两样,可是我却一边吃,一边感动流泪。我二十多岁里吃过酱多碗的 Maggi 面,再也没有比这碗更好吃的了....

Monday, 16 December 2013

Tan81 对林奇选股法的分享与经验 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者: Tan81
发表于 8/5/2010 10:23

欢迎你参考我的经验。
林奇的投资,属于分散投资的。
10家里面,3家优秀,4家中等,3家不良,他还是赚大钱的。
分散投资的主要原因,就是它们都是小公司。
要小公司持续成长,并且有优秀、诚实的管理层,概率很小。
缺乏监管的大马,概率更小。

你的资料和计算,都是没有错的。
不过有一点,是要提醒你的。
不是每个管理层会把赚到的现金,继续留在库存现金里的。
他们总会有各种方法,透过不派发股息的方式,慢慢挖空。

不要看Bursa 那么多公司,只是看我买过的几家例子:
AIM (Mesdaq)公司有RM20M以上的现金,在保留这笔现金3年后,开始一年花7-8M 来购置地皮。
MFCB 现金多过 RM100M。2年后,管理层开始拿现钱来买卖股票,并且没有在年报揭示买卖的对象。
Granflo (Mesdaq)上市的最初2年,现金充盈。开始不断的收购别家公司。从1、2年收购一家,变成1年内收购3家。
Triumphal 在改组后,成功地提升自己的盈利和现金流。身为管理层的2父子,每人每年拿200万年薪,共400万,每年派发给股东的股息不到RM200万。

对于我而言,有很好的现金流公司,却没有准备派发给股东的公司,都是你必须提放和留意的。
我在对它们估值的时候,就不会把这个列为有利的考量了。

如果你要做实验,或许可以考虑这一点。反正你现在的买价,赚到了不少钱。
或许你可以卖出50% ,保留盈利。保留另外50% ,继续观察。
经过一段时日后,也许你就可以比较得出,当初的那个选项才是正确的。

Sunday, 15 December 2013

第一家分析/买入的黑马: FIMACORP [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者: 夜孩子
发表于 7/5/2010 23:49

Just to share: One of the undervalued companies that I have bought...FIMACORP

Last Nov, bought a boring company named FIMACORP. Why I said it's boring, cause this stocks almost have no trading everyday. Everyday also the seller is reluctant to sell at low price, while buyers are reluctant to buy at high price. So sometimes there can b no transaction even for a week.

Bought 500 shares of it with just RM2.95 per share. So it's juz a RM1475 of capital. The reason that I buy it:

1. Company has shown consistent growth in net profit for the past 5 years. EPS grow from 28.5 sen in 2005 to 70sen in 2009. Yet, the price is still as low as RM2.95. P/E ratio 4.2++, meaning each year earn 70 sen, after 4.2 yeas u can earn back ur capital of RM2.95.

2. So why this company is undervalued? I supposed the company have had some poor performance in the past, might even had lose money before, thus many people edi neglected this company.

3. This company basically operates on 2 business. Rental from a 4 storey plaza and printing security documents, revenue stamp, JPJ documents, and even bank notes. But why the profit increase so much for the last 5 years? Especially in March 2008, EPS only 38 sen but in March 2009, EPS is 70sen. That's because in 2006, company switch their organization, they have capital expenditure on Palm Oil plantations since 2006. So the company begins to focus on palm oil business, aiming to make it one of their primary business.

4. The company has low debts and liabilities. With an equity of RM250 million, all the long term borrowings and loans are less than 10 million. Summore the company has cash and bank balance of 82 million. Enough to cover everything even if something happens. The only concern is that the receivables are quite high...about 80 million. Meaning got RM80 million of inventories given, yet haven't receive money. But later on I found that RM70 million of it are owe by Government of Malaysia, so it's not a concern that u can't get back the money on receivables. Usually receivables are money that u can get back within 1 year, mayb 3-6 months like that.

5. The net tangible asset of the company itself (property, assets, machines, inventories, cash, investment funds) edi worth RM3.20 a share. So buying something worth RM3.20 at price of RM2.95 has limited amount of risk.

6. From what I know as a biochem student, the trees of palm oil takes 3 years time from date planted to be able to harvest fresh fruit bunches (FFB). And usually the harvest is at peak between year 5 - 20. And can have a life span of up to 25 years. So even they have fruits after 3 years, the harvest is not highly profitable until the 5th year. And as soon as the trees aged 3 years, they are quite big and strong enough to resist from pest and disease. So maintenance cost for palm oil trees basically greatly reduce by more than 80% after the 3rd year.

7. So, planted trees back in 2006, and I bought at Nov of 2009. Meaning now those trees have jz began to harvest fruits and yield profits. So, I do estimate that the maintenance cost will be greatly reduce for the coming years, and few years later the profits will go even higher on year 5 onwards. Summore the company have total of 19k hectares of land in indonesia. The book value of those lands are cheap, average only RM700 per hectares while it cost you RM20k to buy 1 hectare of palm oil land in Malaysia. I know a land in Kalimantan is worthless to be convert into other lands for profit, but at least for plantation, getting a hectare at RM700 is very cheap.

8. I treat stocks as business. If I wanna buy a palm oil company, means I'm more or less like doing palm oil business on my own. But if I do on my own, I have to buy 1 hectare at RM20k in Malaysia. If I buy all 82 million shares of FIMACORP at RM2.95, I'm using RM241 million to buy the whole company. Meaning RM241 million / 19k hectares = average of RM12k per hectare (relatively cheap). Even the land itself of the company edi worth market price of RM20k X 19k hectares = RM380 million (or RM4.63 per share). So if I buy at RM2.95, it's juz like I'm buying a 380 million company at price of 241 million (if u compare it to doing palm oil business on ur own).

9. The company has cash and bank balance of RM82 million/ 82 million shares, meaning each share itself edi got RM1 of cash. So what is my risk? Almost zero (unless the boss do anything bad in company). But the return is uncountable. So I dun have any reason why I can't give it a try with juz RM1.4k.

9. The company only has 6k hectares of land planted so far, the remaining 12k+ still pending approval from Indonesia Gov. So even 6k hectares planted also got such profit, what happens if all 19k hectares planted? Means the company still got a high potential to go up in share price.

10. But not much people seems to be interested in this company. Mainly becoz 60% of the share owns by the director, Ahmad Basir (also director of United Plantation company, so palm oil to him is easy job). Director and all big share holders edi have more than 80% of the shares, leaving only 16 million of shares traded in the market. Each day there were less than 10,000 shares traded. So with this kind of volume, big buyers (fund and issurance manager) and technical investors are not interested cause it's hard for them to get in and get out for profit on price. That's y even the company has such good profit also, the newspaper seems to neglect its presence. Those so called experts only know how to focus on those hot pick companies, hot tips etc.

11. So I bought at RM2.95, and 3 weeks later...end of Nov, quater results show that the revenue remains the same, but the company has 29% growth in profit due to reduction in cost. And the price went up to RM3.20, after getting an interim dividend of 8 sen per share, the price diluted to abt RM3.15 for quite some time until Dec. Total dividend is about 18sen a year, which is abt 6.1% if I buy at RM2.95...double the amount of bank savings. So even the price didn't go up, at least I still have 6.1% every year.

12. There's an advantage of picking such stocks for small buyers like me...there are twice when there's a drop in market due to Dubai Crisis in Nov and when China and US plans to reduce loans in Jan. But however, this company is standing still at RM3.10-3.15...y? Bcoz there's no trading done! =P so the price won't change if there's no transaction.

13. And when the company announced their 3rd quater results, it shows that their 9 month cumulative profit grow by 55% compare to last year...I supposed mainly due to growth in the harvest of FFB. And the price begin to soars...RM3.2, RM3.45, until RM3.60 for quite a few days. But yet, the newspaper and media mentioned nothing abt this company, seems as nobody ever knows it. But a week later, when the company starts to draw some attention, the price went up to RM4.15, with a daily trading volume of more than 10,000 shares everyday (previously always no trading). Yesterday, this company is edi trading at RM4.48. And to me, it's still quite worth buying bcoz the PE is still low and there are still many lands not planted, jz that I dun have any excessive cash edi =P

So, bought 500shares at RM2.95 in 2nd Nov, capital of RM1475, today worth ~RM4.50 X 500 shares, value is ~RM2250, gain 52.5% in 5 months. Should I convinced myself that I'm right that time?

Saturday, 14 December 2013

如何以大众 2009 年年报,评估大众银行3年后的盈利和股价 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者:夜孩子
发表于 6/5/2010 11:22

分享一个可以从大众银行2009年报133-135页里可以做的分析:

首先是 PBBANK vs. MALAYSIA...看了之后应该不需要解释为何我选大众不选其它银行了。

再看看 PBBANK vs. ASIA...你就可以看得出整个亚洲的 TOP 银行大概也只有香港的恒生银行可以和大众一比高低。

之后是用 PBBANK 2012 的 3 years medium term target 来评估大众银行在 2012 年的股价。

这个评估是纯碎因为大众银行在历年来都常常达标,有时还超出目标,所以相信大众银行这次也能做到。况且我个人认为大众银行是不会随便设定一些无法达成的目标。所以以下的分析,是分析大众银行若达标,2012年的股价会是多少。

这里我都把重点放在 total asset.

2012 target total asset is RM320 billion vs. RM217.1 billion in 2009. From PBBANK vs. Malaysia document, we can see that pre-tax return on average assets for PBBANK is 1.6%, and in fact the average number for this for the last 10 years is even higher than 1.6%. Ok, juz give it a conservative estimation, that 2012 pre-tax return on average assets is also 1.6%.

Then, usually net-profit is ~ 75% of the pre-tax profit, meaning net profit would be about 1.2%-1.3% of total assets.

1.25% X RM320billion ~ RM4 billlion of Net Profit.

If RM4 billion of net profit / 3.5 billion shares of PBBANK issued, EPS in 2012 would be ~ 114.3 sen

If we give it a conservative PE ratio of 13, share price = 13 X 114.3 sen = RM14.86
If we give it a normal PE ratio of 15, share price = 15 X 114.3 = RM17.15

Even for those who bought at current price of ~RM12.00, total return = RM17.15/RM12 = 42.88%, or 12.63% p.a.

Yet, this return is only based on share price, while the dividend payout for 2010-2012 have not been included.

I do believe that PBBANK is able to achieve BASEL III requirement while paying dividend of 55sen a year for 2010-2012.

So total estimated dividend = RM1.65

RM17.15 + RM1.65 = RM 18.8, RM18.8/RM12 = 56.67%, or 16.14% p.a







Friday, 13 December 2013

首次与Tan81 交流:富爸爸的理念 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者: Tan81
发表于 3/5/2010 01:34

既然你对 Robert Kiyosaki 的股票投资有兴趣,和你分享他去年九月的旧文章。

2. I invest for cash flow, not capital gains. Most people invest for capital gains. These are the people who have lost a lot of money or are afraid of losing more money. When a person says, "My house has appreciated in value" or "The stock market is going up," they are investing for capital gains. Investing for capital gains is like building a house of straw or sticks.

In 1973 I took a real estate course to learn how to invest for cash flow. Even though the real estate market crashed in 2007, my rental properties continue to produce cash flow. Even though banks are not lending money to many homeowners, the government continues to loan millions, via the FHA, to investors who provide housing. This means we receive tax breaks and use debt -- other people's money -- to increase income.

The good news is, when prices crash, cash flow investments become more affordable. For example, stocks such as Johnson & Johnson, a company that pays a steady dividend (cash flow), become more affordable. If you want to start your real estate career, now is the time to invest for cash flow.

Thursday, 12 December 2013

入门时所接触的书籍 [白天去上学,夜晚建管道 by 夜孩子]

作者: 夜孩子
发表于: 3/5/2010 00:12

讲到书,再来跟大家来个分享。

我阅读过的书有:

1. 冷眼分享集:《三十年股票投资心得》
2. 冷眼分享集 (2004-2008 的文稿)
3. Mary Buffett: 史上最强投资者巴菲特的《真本事》
4. Robert Kiyosaki : Rich Dad Poor Dad
5. Robert Kiyosaki : Guide To Investing
6. Peter Lynch: 《Beat The Street》,《One Up On Wall Street》,《Learn To Earn》
7. 货币战争 part 1

基本上我是先从 Robert Kiyosaki 的书得到了对于致富的概念和哲学。其实不管他里面讲过什么故事,给过什么例子,画过什么图表,如果大家有留意到的话,其实就好象我师父所说的,以十四个字就能把它总结起来,那就是:“增加多点会为您吐出现金的资产”。我觉得一点都没错,因为不管是他的哪一本书,经常都离不开那个 Income statement & Balance Sheet 的 Cash Flow 图表,方法和例子有很多,但共同的重点就只有那十四个字。但很多做 MLM 的人不但没有真正抓到这个重点,还滥用 ESBI 来拉人做 MLM。我觉得有许多开口就跟你 ESBI 前,ESBI 后的 MLM salesman, 其实对理财和投资,以及致富的概念并不是很了解。他们多数只懂得跟你说:"Robert Kiyosaki 一直强调要致富就要做个 B or I 人士,然而我们的 XXX 公司能让你成为一个出色的 B".

之后就看冷眼,从他身上学习股票投资应有的正确心态。再来就是看《真本事》,学习如何阅读财报,及巴菲特如何评估内在价值 (intrinsic value) 的其中一种方法。基本上我所有对财报做的功课,根基大多数都是那儿来的。

之后略懂一些林奇 (Peter Lynch)的一些稀奇的投资哲学。不过我自认对林奇的书不是很懂,只是稍微拿来作参考罢了,但发现一招半式也满管用的。

最后是师父介绍我看 《货币战争》,了解关于货币,通膨,供债,银行等的原发。所以我对银行及保险的了解部分是从这本书学来的。但由于这本书太难消化了,我觉得我连 10% 也吸收不到。不过即使懂一点点,也觉得让我对投资 PBBANK 及 LPI 更有信心。